Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO +115 STMN -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +12 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -21.0 (-33.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -12.1 (-24.1) | 142.8 (+13.2) | 85% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SEMO -7.8 (-19.8) | 142.2 (+13.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | SEMO -11.0 (-23.0) | 142.9 (+13.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -12.2 (-24.2) | 144.7 (+11.3) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#86) | -5.9 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#216) | -0.97 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#210) | -1.66 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#97) | 0.389 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 4.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 14.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.9% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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