Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USU -3000 UTEP +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +24 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | USU -23.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USU -14.3 (+9.7) | 139.5 (-13.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -17.1 (+6.9) | 138.9 (-12.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -15.9 (+8.1) | 137.0 (-11.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#109) | -9.8 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#48) | -1.68 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#54) | -2.48 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#43) | 0.500 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 35.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 64.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 29.5% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 7.7% |
Game Analysis
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