Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +46 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UK -26.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -22.7 (+23.3) | 139.9 (+12.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -21.6 (+24.4) | 140.2 (+11.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -24.0 (+22.0) | 140.9 (+11.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -23.0 (+23.0) | 143.9 (+8.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#12) | -1.4 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#139) | -0.36 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#133) | -0.44 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#103) | 0.431 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 47.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 37.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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