Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | FGCU +110 UTC -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +18 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -10.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -2.0 (+16.0) | 143.9 (+20.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -5.1 (+12.9) | 151.0 (+13.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -5.9 (+12.1) | 153.3 (+10.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -7.7 (+10.3) | 149.9 (+14.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#330) | -9.6 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#340) | -1.61 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#326) | -2.65 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#246) | 0.340 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 20.5 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.07 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 9.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 17.7% |
| FT Rate | 9.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 67.5% | 64.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 57.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 51.9% |
Game Analysis
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