Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -37.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +38 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -30.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -25.6 (+12.4) | 152.9 (+9.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -22.2 (+15.8) | 147.8 (+14.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -28.1 (+9.9) | 145.7 (+16.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -27.4 (+10.6) | 149.2 (+12.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-0 | 8-7 |
| Away | 10-1 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 24.8 (#3) | 4.2 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#21) | 1.35 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#20) | 1.86 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#107) | 0.633 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 45.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.03 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 39.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.4% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 58.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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