Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | ASU +750 GONZ -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +12 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -4.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -1.4 (-10.6) | 142.0 (-0.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GONZ -2.6 (-9.4) | 142.1 (-0.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | GONZ -1.7 (-10.3) | 137.9 (+4.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -3.0 (-9.0) | 136.8 (+5.2) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | GONZ 88 – 80 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#185) | 13.3 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#122) | 1.00 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#118) | 1.42 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#209) | 0.729 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 47.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 2.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 40.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 13.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 38.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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