Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 179.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +33 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -4.6 (+28.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 187.3 (-34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -5.5 (+27.5) | 167.3 (-14.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -3.6 (+29.4) | 158.8 (-5.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -5.8 (+27.2) | 163.6 (-10.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -6.9 (+26.1) | 167.5 (-14.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 9-1 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#165) | 5.9 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#309) | 1.11 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#290) | 1.54 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#193) | 0.550 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 37.9% | 42.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 42.6% |
Game Analysis
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