Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -20000 CSUB +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +22 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -15.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -16.0 (+6.0) | 138.7 (+3.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -13.2 (+8.8) | 141.7 (+0.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -17.3 (+4.7) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -15.3 (+6.7) | 141.5 (+0.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-18 |
| Home | 7-9 | 6-11 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 83.4 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#93) | -1.3 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#106) | -0.17 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#113) | -0.26 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#107) | 0.396 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 44.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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