Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MERC -290 MORG +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -16.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -8.1 (+5.9) | 133.2 (+24.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -8.4 (+5.6) | 133.8 (+24.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -10.4 (+3.6) | 130.6 (+27.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -9.8 (+4.2) | 135.8 (+22.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 6, 2024 | MERC 78 – 73 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-14 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 80.1 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#115) | -2.7 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#119) | -2.21 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#101) | -2.84 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#202) | 0.323 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 43.2% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.4% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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