Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -31.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +25 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -32.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.2 (+19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -30.2 (-5.2) | 155.9 (+31.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LOU -25.4 (-0.4) | 154.7 (+32.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LOU -24.8 (+0.2) | 154.0 (+33.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -30.9 (-5.9) | 155.1 (+31.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 80.0 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#13) | -7.5 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#82) | -0.74 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#79) | -1.03 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#98) | 0.590 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 45.3 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.03 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 36.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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