Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +100 JAX -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | VMI -4.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -0.5 (-2.5) | 144.0 (-8.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -2.8 (-4.8) | 144.0 (-8.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -4.0 (-6.0) | 146.3 (-10.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -3.2 (-5.2) | 147.6 (-11.6) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#241) | 2.3 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#98) | -0.60 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#116) | -0.76 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#141) | 0.500 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.9% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 46.8% |
Game Analysis
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