Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | UAB +105 HPU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +17 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -2.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -0.9 (+17.9) | 149.9 (+15.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -2.4 (+14.6) | 146.7 (+18.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -1.3 (+15.7) | 150.9 (+14.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -3.6 (+13.4) | 151.8 (+13.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | HPU 68 – 65 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-1 |
| Home | 8-9 | 17-1 |
| Away | 10-2 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#130) | 10.7 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#324) | 1.03 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#320) | 1.61 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.308 (#330) | 0.500 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 21.1% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 3.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 6.3% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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