Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -145 UAB +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -15.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -8.7 (-5.7) | 145.5 (-12.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -12.8 (-9.8) | 148.4 (-15.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -15.0 (-12.0) | 148.9 (-15.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -14.6 (-11.6) | 148.3 (-15.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | UAB 91 – 74 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#132) | -4.4 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#134) | -0.97 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#143) | -1.51 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#253) | 0.421 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 44.8% | 24.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 38.0% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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