Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -125 PROV +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +9 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -5.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 193.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -5.7 (+3.3) | 164.2 (+20.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -4.2 (+4.8) | 161.2 (+23.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -3.5 (+5.5) | 163.8 (+21.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -10.3 (-1.3) | 168.3 (+16.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 84.0 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#239) | 1.6 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#151) | -0.17 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#159) | -0.20 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#242) | 0.458 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 44.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 47.0% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 80.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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