Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -41.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +29 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -36.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -27.4 (+1.6) | 159.6 (+19.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -24.9 (+4.1) | 158.8 (+20.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -34.9 (-5.9) | 160.7 (+18.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -34.4 (-5.4) | 157.1 (+21.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#6) | -9.3 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#18) | -1.07 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#16) | -1.49 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#130) | 0.458 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.6% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 43.2% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.77 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.6% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 10.0% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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