Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -2000 MAN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +30 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -15.6 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -9.0 (+21.0) | 153.4 (-11.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -12.8 (+17.2) | 150.1 (-8.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -16.7 (+13.3) | 149.7 (-7.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -12.6 (+17.4) | 152.8 (-10.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 16-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#102) | -1.6 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#159) | 1.39 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#147) | 1.97 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#218) | 0.661 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 41.3% | 40.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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