Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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68–22 on winners spread MAE 12.4 90 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana State @ Duke +30.7 152.1 100% 62–100 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Kentucky +26.4 145.7 99% 53–99 ✓
Louisiana @ McNeese +19.2 131.5 96% 62–88 ✓
Norfolk State @ Towson +12.2 128.3 87% 41–51 ✓
South Carolina State @ Charleston +14.0 155.1 90% 61–88 ✓
The Citadel @ West Georgia +15.8 150.9 92% 92–100 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairfield +24.9 144.1 99% 71–73 ✓
Fordham @ Iona +25.8 151.0 99% 71–76 ✓
Furman @ Northern Iowa +19.8 130.2 96% 54–70 ✓
UAlbany @ Rhode Island +19.3 136.5 96% 61–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Bucknell +8.3 139.1 78% 83–77 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Drake +4.4 137.1 65% 61–59 ✗
High Point @ UAB +0.7 161.3 52% 74–91 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Ole Miss +15.9 146.2 93% 60–82 ✓
Illinois State @ USC +11.9 152.8 86% 67–87 ✓
New Orleans @ Tulane +8.8 148.2 79% 85–63 ✗
Milwaukee @ Texas Tech +29.5 170.7 100% 63–80 ✓
Samford @ Arkansas +24.9 163.4 99% 75–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Creighton +14.4 133.6 90% 45–84 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Rice +13.1 153.5 88% 64–71 ✓
UCF @ Texas A&M +10.7 169.2 83% 86–74 ✗
Xavier @ Iowa +25.7 146.6 99% 62–81 ✓
Hampton @ Brown +7.7 152.3 76% 72–63 ✗
Northwestern @ DePaul -10.9 127.8 16% 81–79 ✓
Michigan @ TCU +2.3 175.2 58% 67–63 ✗
Colgate @ Illinois +28.4 163.3 100% 65–84 ✓
North Carolina Central @ North Carolina +29.8 157.7 100% 53–97 ✓
Cal Poly @ Montana +8.8 160.6 79% 82–90 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Georgia +39.9 144.7 100% 87–92 ✓
Sacramento State @ UC Davis +17.5 155.0 94% 73–77 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +26.4 147.0 99% 66–76 ✓
Providence @ Colorado +6.5 194.8 72% 88–97 ✓
Tarleton State @ Baylor +23.9 166.3 99% 81–94 ✓
Utah Tech @ Mississippi Valley State -17.6 153.0 5% 81–75 ✓
Arizona @ UCLA -9.8 153.0 19% 69–65 ✓
North Texas @ Saint Mary's +12.6 132.3 87% 49–80 ✓
Troy @ Loyola Marymount +7.7 141.2 76% 63–74 ✓
Western Illinois @ California Baptist +16.0 144.3 93% 59–69 ✓
Gonzaga @ Arizona State -3.8 140.3 37% 77–65 ✓
Washington @ Washington State -3.7 151.9 37% 81–69 ✓
Manhattan @ Hawai'i +15.9 159.8 93% 56–86 ✓
South Alabama @ Coppin State -16.7 139.4 6% 72–62 ✓
Ohio @ Louisville +31.7 167.3 100% 81–106 ✓
Marshall @ Virginia +11.4 149.3 85% 78–104 ✓
Clemson @ Georgetown -3.4 139.0 38% 74–79 ✗
Kansas City @ Texas +29.1 162.4 100% 55–71 ✓
Delaware State @ New Haven -1.9 127.8 43% 52–65 ✗
Vermont @ Northeastern +12.7 150.9 88% 85–74 ✗
Merrimack @ Boston University +22.2 145.7 98% 91–79 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Toledo +12.7 165.3 88% 83–90 ✓
Jacksonville @ VMI +5.9 153.1 70% 69–67 ✗
Chattanooga @ Florida Gulf Coast +10.2 166.1 82% 73–91 ✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State -4.1 200.8 36% 102–95 ✓
Penn State @ La Salle -16.2 146.0 7% 83–69 ✓
Stony Brook @ Yale +39.1 159.3 100% 79–86 ✓
Princeton @ Kansas +26.6 149.5 99% 57–76 ✓
Austin Peay @ UNC Greensboro -5.3 144.2 31% 69–63 ✓
UTSA @ Denver +26.8 157.8 99% 84–79 ✗
New Hampshire @ George Mason +25.3 149.6 99% 44–61 ✓
Mercer @ Winthrop +13.0 159.4 88% 69–105 ✓
Wofford @ Bellarmine +11.0 140.4 84% 94–86 ✗
Maryland @ Marquette +18.0 145.7 95% 89–82 ✗
UIC @ Chicago State -0.5 168.1 48% 67–63 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Air Force -1.0 152.2 46% 76–61 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Stonehill +3.8 139.3 64% 74–63 ✗
Butler @ SMU +2.0 159.2 57% 85–87 ✓
Boston College @ Temple +17.4 143.5 94% 76–71 ✗
Harvard @ Army +7.9 166.7 76% 75–52 ✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Southeast Missouri State +21.4 147.7 97% 84–72 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Vanderbilt +37.5 173.4 100% 75–104 ✓
East Tennessee State @ North Alabama +3.6 145.9 63% 78–74 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Queens University +16.8 163.2 94% 64–81 ✓
Binghamton @ Longwood +14.1 146.0 90% 82–90 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Mississippi State +17.4 147.4 94% 68–75 ✓
Wright State @ Radford +5.6 153.5 70% 92–59 ✗
Drexel @ Syracuse +18.7 145.5 96% 50–80 ✓
UTEP @ Utah State +22.7 143.5 98% 51–75 ✓
Montana State @ Boise State +18.4 148.1 95% 58–62 ✓
Idaho @ UC San Diego +12.7 155.1 88% 67–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ St. Bonaventure +8.5 156.4 78% 80–84 ✓
Morgan State @ Mercyhurst +15.3 136.0 92% 72–86 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ NJIT +17.7 145.3 95% 81–93 ✓
Texas Southern @ Texas State +21.7 156.8 98% 67–77 ✓
North Dakota @ UC Riverside +22.6 151.9 98% 76–74 ✗
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton +9.7 156.5 81% 85–73 ✗
Nicholls @ Murray State +18.4 148.9 95% 79–99 ✓
William & Mary @ St. John's +4.2 187.7 65% 60–93 ✓
Bowling Green @ Davidson +6.4 130.5 72% 87–91 ✓
Missouri State @ UT Arlington +12.7 151.4 88% 49–67 ✓
Old Dominion @ George Washington +25.4 148.3 99% 73–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.