I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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60–22 on winners spread MAE 10.1 82 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Binghamton @ Fordham +18.3 140.7 95% 62–77 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Columbia +0.7 157.1 53% 76–73 ✗
Dartmouth @ Central Connecticut +3.9 140.2 64% 50–59 ✓
Queens University @ High Point +5.7 155.7 70% 87–79 ✗
Grambling @ Vanderbilt +6.8 133.6 73% 64–62 ✗
McNeese @ Northern Iowa +14.5 137.7 91% 52–49 ✗
Lipscomb @ Alabama A&M -6.8 156.3 27% 59–63 ✗
Washington @ Gonzaga +13.6 145.9 89% 60–77 ✓
Arkansas State @ Air Force +8.3 111.8 78% 55–80 ✓
Tulane @ Buffalo +0.5 160.7 52% 88–63 ✗
Penn State @ Illinois +14.9 149.0 91% 74–59 ✗
Vermont @ Colgate +8.9 148.0 79% 73–72 ✗
Drexel @ La Salle +3.1 130.2 61% 65–58 ✗
Long Island University @ UConn +44.6 141.2 100% 61–114 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas +27.1 138.4 99% 43–88 ✓
Oklahoma @ Arkansas +1.3 133.5 55% 78–88 ✓
Yale @ Kentucky +5.8 135.2 70% 59–69 ✓
Lafayette @ Quinnipiac +10.3 125.0 82% 63–76 ✓
Louisville @ Florida State +15.8 132.6 93% 53–75 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Saint Joseph's +6.9 140.7 74% 57–73 ✓
Temple @ Pennsylvania +1.1 147.4 54% 57–77 ✓
Radford @ VMI -8.1 147.1 23% 74–77 ✗
Georgetown @ Syracuse +9.7 144.0 81% 64–83 ✓
Canisius @ Toledo +13.7 166.8 89% 68–69 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ North Florida +7.8 148.8 76% 48–88 ✓
Evansville @ Ball State +15.6 135.6 92% 69–88 ✓
Holy Cross @ Northeastern +13.2 133.8 89% 58–59 ✓
NC State @ Miami +2.6 155.7 59% 73–80 ✓
UC Irvine @ South Dakota -12.5 138.1 13% 83–71 ✓
Drake @ Richmond +1.6 125.9 56% 52–82 ✓
Army @ Rhode Island +5.4 142.5 69% 67–77 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Charlotte +9.9 132.1 82% 80–82 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Dayton +6.6 137.5 73% 56–79 ✓
Wake Forest @ LSU -0.7 147.6 48% 70–72 ✗
Purdue @ Nebraska -5.9 135.5 30% 65–62 ✓
UIC @ Western Michigan -2.1 143.7 42% 62–56 ✓
UAlbany @ Providence +18.4 152.7 95% 55–93 ✓
Alabama @ Houston +15.0 131.3 91% 71–65 ✗
Denver @ UCLA +23.2 152.1 98% 64–87 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Diego State -6.6 129.6 28% 68–61 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Abilene Christian +0.4 138.3 51% 64–83 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois -1.6 132.7 44% 79–75 ✓
Central Michigan @ Tulsa +5.6 149.6 69% 63–70 ✓
Wofford @ Georgia Southern -5.3 136.9 31% 57–79 ✗
Lamar @ Southern Miss +27.1 135.1 99% 59–95 ✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State -6.7 127.2 27% 67–58 ✓
South Carolina State @ South Carolina Upstate +6.1 153.8 71% 84–89 ✓
Xavier @ Cincinnati -4.3 162.0 35% 80–77 ✓
Valparaiso @ Ole Miss +17.8 129.9 95% 61–98 ✓
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina +13.5 151.0 89% 59–75 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Pittsburgh +16.8 146.5 94% 66–91 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Illinois State -3.3 136.7 38% 71–77 ✗
Jacksonville @ UNC Wilmington +1.0 117.8 54% 53–81 ✓
Longwood @ Wichita State +4.9 123.4 67% 63–81 ✓
Utah Valley @ Northern Arizona -2.1 142.6 42% 80–75 ✓
American University @ George Washington +1.6 143.5 56% 69–64 ✗
UTSA @ New Mexico +24.8 145.0 99% 76–94 ✓
Norfolk State @ William & Mary +7.1 142.4 74% 67–53 ✗
Murray State @ Bellarmine -1.8 132.9 44% 58–69 ✗
Winthrop @ Furman +12.5 160.1 87% 67–82 ✓
UL Monroe @ Northwestern State +18.1 139.7 95% 73–91 ✓
Seattle U @ North Dakota -7.8 140.9 24% 80–78 ✓
Washington State @ UNLV -2.1 135.9 43% 70–74 ✗
Brown @ Michigan State +12.5 128.9 87% 50–68 ✓
San José State @ Santa Clara +10.3 139.5 83% 75–64 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ UMass Lowell +26.8 138.6 99% 59–68 ✓
Fresno State @ Pacific +2.4 143.8 59% 72–76 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Belmont +1.7 141.3 56% 85–75 ✗
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State +9.9 139.1 82% 76–77 ✓
Butler @ California -10.0 120.7 18% 82–58 ✓
Boston College @ Villanova +5.3 134.5 69% 56–77 ✓
Auburn @ Memphis -1.9 128.5 43% 73–82 ✗
Kansas @ Missouri +0.5 168.0 52% 95–67 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Duke +27.6 128.5 99% 55–82 ✓
Morgan State @ UMBC +4.7 154.9 67% 63–75 ✓
North Texas @ Grand Canyon -3.1 108.6 39% 60–58 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Troy +17.0 146.7 94% 64–87 ✓
Omaha @ Montana State +11.3 144.7 85% 54–82 ✓
New Hampshire @ St. John's +20.1 148.3 97% 51–64 ✓
UAB @ West Virginia +12.5 159.9 87% 70–81 ✓
Long Beach State @ Sacramento State +4.1 144.9 64% 74–76 ✓
UTEP @ DePaul +7.5 148.4 75% 70–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.