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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
60–22 on winners
spread MAE 10.4
82 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+13.5 | 140.5 | 88% | 62–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 148.4 | 41% | 76–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 136.3 | 51% | 50–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 149.5 | 58% | 87–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.6 | 136.0 | 75% | 64–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.4 | 136.1 | 85% | 52–49 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.4 | 146.8 | 38% | 59–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.1 | 143.7 | 86% | 60–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 124.3 | 73% | 55–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 153.0 | 47% | 88–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.2 | 147.7 | 85% | 74–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.5 | 140.5 | 65% | 73–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.3 | 134.8 | 56% | 65–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+27.7 | 149.3 | 91% | 61–114 | ✓ |
|
|
+25.1 | 143.5 | 91% | 43–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 133.3 | 61% | 78–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 138.7 | 83% | 59–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 132.2 | 78% | 63–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 133.4 | 86% | 53–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 135.7 | 63% | 57–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 142.3 | 51% | 57–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.1 | 146.0 | 36% | 74–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.4 | 148.0 | 77% | 64–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 154.8 | 87% | 68–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 147.9 | 77% | 48–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 137.5 | 85% | 69–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 135.7 | 82% | 58–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 148.2 | 73% | 73–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.3 | 135.9 | 19% | 83–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 131.4 | 57% | 52–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 136.9 | 69% | 67–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 131.0 | 81% | 80–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 137.4 | 78% | 56–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 140.4 | 51% | 70–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.9 | 137.1 | 29% | 65–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 141.5 | 36% | 62–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.4 | 146.4 | 90% | 55–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 133.6 | 66% | 71–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+24.2 | 149.6 | 91% | 64–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 129.0 | 38% | 68–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 139.8 | 59% | 64–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 138.8 | 27% | 79–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 146.6 | 75% | 63–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.6 | 135.3 | 27% | 57–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+19.4 | 138.5 | 90% | 59–95 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 132.8 | 30% | 67–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 148.2 | 76% | 84–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 155.8 | 42% | 80–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.7 | 131.3 | 86% | 61–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.8 | 151.5 | 85% | 59–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.5 | 145.0 | 87% | 66–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 138.4 | 49% | 71–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.4 | 127.6 | 71% | 53–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 135.4 | 65% | 63–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.0 | 143.9 | 31% | 80–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 136.6 | 54% | 69–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+20.0 | 150.4 | 90% | 76–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 135.0 | 59% | 67–53 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.2 | 130.5 | 39% | 58–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.8 | 151.4 | 87% | 67–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 140.2 | 86% | 73–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.8 | 144.8 | 17% | 80–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 135.1 | 47% | 70–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.7 | 128.9 | 84% | 50–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 136.0 | 81% | 75–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+19.3 | 137.4 | 90% | 59–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 140.0 | 45% | 72–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 138.4 | 48% | 85–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 138.2 | 80% | 76–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.7 | 128.2 | 21% | 82–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 132.4 | 72% | 56–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 134.7 | 47% | 73–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 156.4 | 48% | 95–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+25.9 | 132.4 | 91% | 55–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 147.5 | 76% | 63–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 118.1 | 29% | 60–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.7 | 141.4 | 86% | 64–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 141.4 | 87% | 54–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.4 | 144.0 | 87% | 51–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 153.5 | 80% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 143.5 | 62% | 74–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 147.2 | 74% | 70–91 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.