I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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64–25 on winners spread MAE 9.1 89 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Dayton +9.2 138.1 81% 86–91 ✓
Evansville @ Drake +10.8 148.6 84% 58–79 ✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH) -1.5 139.0 41% 72–59 ✓
Ball State @ Bowling Green +3.7 139.8 68% 70–80 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo -2.8 145.8 34% 78–68 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan +6.0 131.5 73% 62–65 ✓
VMI @ East Tennessee State +14.7 142.3 88% 66–98 ✓
Western Illinois @ Little Rock +3.6 136.9 63% 57–82 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +2.7 142.6 63% 60–61 ✓
South Dakota @ Oral Roberts +2.6 149.8 60% 62–77 ✓
Kent State @ Toledo +6.1 152.7 76% 71–86 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego -2.8 147.4 39% 52–57 ✗
Wichita State @ Tulane +4.1 153.8 68% 75–85 ✓
UIC @ Bradley +9.3 139.8 82% 47–74 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +6.0 138.0 72% 79–77 ✗
Morehead State @ UT Martin -4.4 147.6 32% 84–78 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland -6.7 141.1 25% 70–78 ✗
Arkansas @ Alabama +15.7 173.5 89% 88–92 ✓
Campbell @ Monmouth +6.4 142.3 76% 67–90 ✓
Le Moyne @ Merrimack +7.8 135.3 79% 51–61 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +8.0 153.3 80% 57–70 ✓
Longwood @ High Point +4.0 147.5 69% 80–79 ✗
Memphis @ Florida Atlantic +6.1 160.5 74% 84–92 ✓
Georgetown @ St. John's +17.7 152.9 90% 78–86 ✓
Brown @ Yale +11.9 140.6 87% 84–81 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +12.7 146.3 86% 80–85 ✓
Saint Louis @ St. Bonaventure +11.6 153.8 87% 73–65 ✗
Rhode Island @ Fordham +5.0 144.8 70% 58–50 ✗
Davidson @ Saint Joseph's +5.0 137.5 70% 71–89 ✓
Siena @ Iona +13.8 135.8 87% 54–68 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Liberty +4.4 148.8 68% 79–82 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State -4.3 136.5 30% 58–65 ✗
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +5.6 129.5 69% 66–56 ✗
Maine @ Bryant +5.1 138.2 69% 58–84 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +2.7 142.3 63% 72–83 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas +3.7 143.1 67% 80–94 ✓
West Virginia @ Cincinnati +12.3 145.5 87% 56–92 ✓
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss +2.3 140.8 62% 86–60 ✗
George Washington @ Duquesne +11.0 146.5 85% 65–67 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter's +1.8 135.6 62% 89–74 ✗
Niagara @ Marist +4.2 129.1 68% 62–63 ✓
Cornell @ Columbia -4.4 156.5 28% 98–76 ✓
Creighton @ Villanova -1.1 137.1 46% 69–67 ✓
South Carolina @ Mississippi State +4.5 134.5 66% 93–89 ✗
William & Mary @ Towson +8.7 130.8 81% 56–67 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro +2.9 137.5 61% 73–62 ✗
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech +10.0 134.9 83% 76–82 ✓
Richmond @ George Mason +0.5 132.4 50% 46–64 ✓
South Florida @ Tulsa -4.8 146.2 28% 70–76 ✗
UAlbany @ Vermont +13.0 143.6 88% 72–75 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire +4.2 147.5 67% 64–77 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell +9.6 157.5 84% 89–94 ✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State -0.0 146.8 49% 62–89 ✗
Utah Tech @ Stephen F. Austin +9.1 143.2 82% 71–84 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech +12.6 136.4 87% 70–84 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston +7.0 132.9 78% 73–81 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State +6.3 147.1 75% 72–94 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +14.8 136.7 89% 67–68 ✓
Kansas @ Houston +10.3 135.1 83% 46–76 ✓
Kentucky @ Tennessee +8.6 165.3 79% 85–81 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +6.5 156.6 75% 95–104 ✓
Miami @ Florida State +3.3 151.4 67% 75–83 ✓
Charlotte @ East Carolina -1.0 132.7 47% 82–72 ✓
La Salle @ Loyola Chicago +11.2 143.6 85% 54–64 ✓
Colorado State @ Air Force -12.8 132.1 14% 82–73 ✓
Fairfield @ Mount St. Mary's +0.1 146.9 47% 96–92 ✗
Canisius @ Manhattan -3.9 137.8 32% 73–70 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M -0.7 138.5 44% 67–66 ✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian +2.0 137.0 58% 74–67 ✗
Florida International @ New Mexico State +1.8 141.5 60% 70–77 ✓
Florida @ Vanderbilt -10.8 153.3 16% 78–79 ✗
Marquette @ Xavier -2.3 153.4 40% 86–80 ✓
Colorado @ Oregon State -5.5 147.9 31% 73–57 ✓
UCF @ TCU +6.6 143.3 74% 79–77 ✗
Grambling @ Alabama State +0.8 128.4 51% 84–87 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M -3.4 134.3 31% 56–66 ✗
Seattle U @ Tarleton State +2.3 138.1 67% 66–69 ✓
Boston College @ Louisville -4.4 148.1 28% 67–61 ✓
Baylor @ Texas Tech -0.1 149.5 47% 68–78 ✗
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +2.5 140.5 62% 65–75 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +1.1 145.2 54% 67–72 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +3.4 140.1 63% 74–68 ✗
Wofford @ Chattanooga +1.8 143.5 58% 57–75 ✓
Clemson @ Wake Forest +2.6 149.4 61% 76–81 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern +8.4 138.4 80% 78–93 ✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania -7.0 140.4 23% 105–83 ✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State +2.7 143.1 64% 88–78 ✗
North Carolina @ Duke +3.1 150.2 64% 84–79 ✗
Georgia @ Auburn +14.7 153.4 88% 78–92 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.