They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–22 on winners spread MAE 9.1 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Holy Cross @ Colgate +14.8 137.6 89% 64–81 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette -1.0 131.9 45% 76–61 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +5.3 131.9 68% 61–70 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +2.3 130.2 61% 80–57 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland +4.4 147.8 70% 65–75 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +8.2 148.4 80% 82–70 ✗
Evansville @ Illinois State +2.0 131.8 60% 59–53 ✗
Jacksonville @ Stetson +5.5 140.7 73% 87–88 ✓
UAB @ Temple +0.4 146.9 48% 100–72 ✗
Rutgers @ Wisconsin +8.3 133.5 78% 66–78 ✓
Niagara @ Siena -7.9 135.0 23% 66–59 ✓
Marist @ Quinnipiac +3.1 135.6 66% 64–73 ✓
Iona @ Manhattan -7.5 140.7 23% 60–77 ✗
Canisius @ Fairfield +6.6 141.7 76% 62–74 ✓
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois +1.9 133.3 57% 59–61 ✓
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central +6.3 143.9 73% 68–79 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State +7.2 138.0 75% 60–78 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Rio Grande Valley -2.1 146.2 36% 79–74 ✓
Southern Utah @ Stephen F. Austin +5.7 145.7 73% 60–87 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +5.9 160.1 73% 99–97 ✗
North Alabama @ Austin Peay +3.5 148.8 68% 71–77 ✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -3.3 133.3 37% 59–67 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Rider +1.2 133.1 53% 56–61 ✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State +6.0 138.4 76% 63–60 ✗
California Baptist @ UT Arlington +6.6 140.3 77% 57–71 ✓
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian -1.5 139.5 44% 59–64 ✗
Marshall @ Georgia State +1.7 142.6 58% 86–74 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State +15.4 136.8 90% 67–74 ✓
Southern @ Alabama State -0.4 130.1 46% 65–57 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama A&M -1.1 133.1 40% 74–73 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State +6.4 153.0 77% 84–89 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana +0.5 141.9 56% 80–54 ✗
Washington @ Washington State +6.7 149.5 75% 74–68 ✗
Milwaukee @ Green Bay +1.9 145.2 62% 95–84 ✗
Colorado @ Oregon +0.5 148.8 54% 79–75 ✗
Howard @ Norfolk State +3.9 146.7 67% 58–77 ✓
Florida International @ UTEP +6.8 141.6 76% 76–83 ✓
Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech +9.4 136.4 80% 72–66 ✗
Arizona @ UCLA -14.1 146.9 15% 88–65 ✓
UIC @ Southern Illinois +4.8 138.0 71% 84–82 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State +8.0 134.9 80% 63–78 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State +3.6 150.6 67% 76–74 ✗
UC Davis @ UC San Diego +7.7 139.2 79% 70–63 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside +2.3 134.7 60% 74–84 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +20.3 140.9 91% 68–82 ✓
California @ Stanford +3.6 151.4 67% 58–80 ✓
Arizona State @ USC +5.4 145.4 70% 73–81 ✓
Utah @ Oregon State -6.2 144.9 32% 85–92 ✗
Radford @ High Point +9.8 150.9 84% 63–77 ✓
Missouri State @ Indiana State +9.7 146.8 82% 59–75 ✓
William & Mary @ North Carolina A&T -2.4 137.6 40% 79–62 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +0.7 143.4 53% 69–56 ✗
Belmont @ Northern Iowa +0.2 147.7 50% 62–67 ✓
Hampton @ Elon +2.7 142.9 62% 56–55 ✗
The Citadel @ Mercer +1.6 138.3 58% 76–84 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +9.2 137.0 82% 55–60 ✓
Akron @ Western Michigan -5.7 139.9 26% 84–90 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.