He is handing the money / He is serving the food / He knows about your party / He is calling you dude. "Comfort Eagle" - Cake
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–7 on winners spread MAE 8.6 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Houston @ UCF -8.5 134.4 18% 67–59 ✓
Tennessee @ South Carolina -4.1 139.4 35% 66–59 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +11.6 135.9 87% 62–71 ✓
Long Island University @ Merrimack +11.8 139.4 87% 66–72 ✓
Wagner @ Sacred Heart +5.0 131.5 69% 60–57 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +4.0 145.1 67% 61–82 ✓
Boston College @ Miami +5.2 150.6 69% 67–57 ✗
TCU @ West Virginia -7.2 150.1 26% 93–81 ✓
Rice @ Charlotte +8.5 133.4 81% 64–69 ✓
Northwestern @ Michigan State +6.5 138.0 74% 49–53 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +1.0 154.2 55% 83–94 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Davidson +1.2 134.1 56% 69–59 ✗
George Mason @ Rhode Island -3.4 143.2 35% 69–51 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Washington -5.1 152.1 29% 75–86 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Richmond +7.0 141.6 76% 66–73 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +3.9 139.6 66% 64–78 ✓
Xavier @ Butler +3.2 150.7 67% 66–72 ✓
Fordham @ Massachusetts +11.4 144.3 86% 64–66 ✓
East Carolina @ SMU +12.2 137.7 87% 77–80 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas -1.2 139.5 45% 80–76 ✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar +14.2 149.8 88% 68–78 ✓
McNeese @ New Orleans -16.6 145.9 13% 81–57 ✓
UConn @ Marquette +0.7 149.4 51% 74–67 ✗
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -2.4 138.9 40% 67–60 ✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M +2.1 140.8 59% 80–83 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +14.8 145.3 89% 52–71 ✓
BYU @ Iowa State +5.6 143.1 73% 63–68 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +17.0 158.6 90% 77–93 ✓
Indiana @ Minnesota +5.5 148.2 70% 70–58 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M +1.2 139.9 53% 69–75 ✓
Utah State @ San José State -11.9 143.8 15% 90–70 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +1.8 136.7 58% 57–68 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico +15.8 149.8 89% 58–79 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Hawai'i +5.6 144.5 74% 70–72 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +2.7 148.5 63% 76–71 ✗
Missouri State @ Murray State -0.3 140.5 49% 60–35 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana +9.0 143.8 81% 66–80 ✓
Valparaiso @ Belmont +10.0 145.4 83% 61–86 ✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine +10.5 146.2 82% 43–102 ✓
Texas State @ Southern Miss -0.9 134.4 44% 75–59 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.