And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–13 on winners spread MAE 8.6 41 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Illinois -0.6 163.9 47% 77–71 ✓
Notre Dame @ North Carolina +15.3 138.6 88% 51–84 ✓
Alabama @ Florida +0.1 174.7 47% 87–105 ✓
Tulane @ South Florida +8.6 152.8 82% 72–85 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +5.4 131.7 71% 48–64 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +15.6 145.9 90% 66–85 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +12.0 151.3 87% 63–78 ✓
Jacksonville @ Eastern Kentucky +5.6 144.5 72% 67–65 ✗
Queens University @ Stetson +4.8 155.1 70% 71–83 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Louisville -8.5 149.4 23% 80–64 ✓
Syracuse @ Clemson +9.6 147.9 82% 75–90 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown -6.7 146.0 24% 71–58 ✓
Ole Miss @ Georgia +1.9 147.6 60% 66–69 ✓
Duquesne @ VCU +4.4 135.3 68% 69–59 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo -10.6 146.0 16% 78–66 ✓
Kent State @ Ball State -2.9 141.5 40% 69–76 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Akron +14.6 133.5 89% 61–60 ✗
Toledo @ Miami (OH) -0.3 146.5 49% 97–63 ✓
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan +0.1 141.0 50% 73–65 ✗
Harvard @ Dartmouth -6.0 133.8 23% 69–76 ✗
Vermont @ New Hampshire -6.5 137.4 23% 68–64 ✓
Binghamton @ UMBC +2.1 153.9 61% 72–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Bryant +6.0 159.8 74% 79–83 ✓
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee -4.9 134.5 32% 61–69 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +12.2 151.6 87% 79–83 ✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay +4.3 146.5 69% 98–101 ✓
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +8.1 155.5 81% 77–75 ✗
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State -2.8 147.2 36% 75–58 ✓
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma +4.1 139.8 69% 71–74 ✓
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois +0.0 138.8 55% 69–63 ✗
Old Dominion @ Texas State +3.7 136.5 66% 83–92 ✓
Air Force @ Wyoming +6.3 137.6 75% 63–74 ✓
Auburn @ Missouri -14.7 149.4 14% 101–74 ✓
Kansas State @ Kansas +9.4 143.6 82% 68–90 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis -11.1 148.5 15% 100–83 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest +11.9 147.5 86% 70–69 ✗
Florida State @ Pittsburgh +7.8 145.8 78% 73–88 ✓
St. John's @ DePaul -16.0 148.5 13% 104–77 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV -1.1 134.3 45% 58–62 ✗
Nevada @ Boise State +3.4 141.3 64% 76–66 ✗
Villanova @ Seton Hall +1.0 132.8 54% 56–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.