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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–8 on winners spread MAE 8.1 25 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Duke @ NC State	-4.8	149.2	32%	79–64	✓
Jacksonville @ Kennesaw State	+4.6	147.8	67%	92–86	✗
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast	+4.6	147.8	69%	69–63	✗
North Carolina Central @ Morgan State	-5.4	146.7	29%	79–88	✗
Delaware State @ Howard	+3.9	146.4	68%	66–85	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State	+10.8	135.7	87%	50–69	✓
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word	-2.8	143.7	36%	73–56	✓
Nicholls @ Northwestern State	-1.8	145.0	41%	68–62	✓
South Carolina State @ Coppin State	-6.1	129.5	23%	61–58	✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M	-3.8	146.8	34%	70–53	✓
New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+15.1	148.8	89%	60–73	✓
Houston Christian @ McNeese	+22.2	150.7	91%	69–87	✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona	-2.7	155.9	39%	82–74	✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern	+4.5	136.3	66%	82–79	✗
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M	-0.5	140.5	46%	79–74	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling	+2.5	132.7	64%	60–69	✓
Texas @ Baylor	+6.8	150.1	76%	85–93	✓
Florida A&M @ Southern	+9.9	137.4	83%	44–58	✓
Weber State @ Montana State	-1.9	144.2	41%	64–76	✗
Idaho State @ Montana	+9.5	145.4	83%	65–79	✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State	-7.2	143.9	24%	91–88	✓
Idaho @ Portland State	+5.6	136.9	72%	57–72	✓
Holy Cross @ Army	+2.8	131.0	62%	84–68	✗
Coastal Carolina @ UL Monroe	+1.3	140.0	56%	75–71	✗
UMass Lowell @ Maine	-1.9	136.9	44%	65–71	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.