Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
Southwestern Athletic Conference · Fredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center · March 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GRAM -4.5 Home covered
O/U 133.5 Under
Money GRAM -200 / BCU +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total GRAM win
Actual GRAM +9 129 Won
Massey GRAM -4.1 (+4.9) — —
Massey Totals — 137.2 (-8.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 76% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 78% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML GRAM -2.5 (+6.5) 132.7 (-3.7) 64% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GRAM -4.1 (+4.9) 131.6 (-2.6) 73% ✓
Baseline Plus ML GRAM -2.9 (+6.1) 134.0 (-5.0) 64% ✓
Baseline ML GRAM -3.0 (+6.0) 133.9 (-4.9) 65% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 26, 2026 BCU 76 – 71 GRAM
Jan 10, 2026 BCU 74 – 65 GRAM
Mar 4, 2025 BCU 78 – 71 GRAM
Jan 11, 2025 BCU 65 – 59 GRAM
Mar 15, 2024 GRAM 65 – 53 BCU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GRAM BCU
Overall 21-15 17-17
Conference 14-4 11-7
Home 9-3 11-2
Away 7-9 5-11
Neutral 5-3 1-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 65.4 70.7
Avg Pts Against 69.5 73.7
Massey -8.5 (#308) -9.3 (#317)
Bradley-Terry -0.48 (#225) -1.01 (#279)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.72 (#237) -1.32 (#290)
RPI 0.500 (#177) 0.444 (#294)
Shooting & Four Factors GRAM BCU
FG% 43.0% 42.8%
3PT% 32.2% 31.1%
REB / G 29.9 32.2
OREB / G 9.0 10.2
AST / TO 0.65 0.85
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.8% 47.5%
TOV% 20.5% 19.9%
ORB% 28.6% 29.7%
FT Rate 25.3% 30.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.8% 50.7%
Opp TOV% 19.2% 21.9%
DRB% 66.9% 66.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.7% 35.1%

Game Analysis

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