The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
Kennesaw State Owls
86 – 92
FINAL Conference ASUN
Jacksonville Dolphins
Atlantic Sun Conference · VyStar Arena · March 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread KENN -2.5 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money KENN -138 / JAX +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total KENN win
Actual JAX +6 178 Lost
Massey KENN -6.2 (-12.2) — —
Massey Totals — 156.0 (+22.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 71% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 75% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ KENN -5.2 (-11.2) 150.4 (+27.6) 62% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML KENN -4.6 (-10.6) 147.8 (+30.2) 67% ✗
Baseline ML KENN -4.3 (-10.3) 149.8 (+28.2) 64% ✗
Baseline Plus ML KENN -4.2 (-10.2) 150.2 (+27.8) 64% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 15, 2024 KENN 66 – 61 JAX
Jan 20, 2024 KENN 83 – 79 JAX
Jan 13, 2023 KENN 81 – 68 JAX
Feb 19, 2022 JAX 59 – 56 KENN
Jan 24, 2022 KENN 76 – 68 JAX

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings KENN JAX
Overall 15-16 16-17
Conference 6-10 5-11
Home 9-5 11-3
Away 4-11 4-14
Neutral 2-0 1-0
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 81.5 69.6
Avg Pts Against 83.7 74.6
Massey -5.2 (#266) -8.1 (#303)
Bradley-Terry -0.71 (#251) -1.01 (#280)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.76 (#243) -1.18 (#276)
RPI 0.450 (#284) 0.447 (#285)
Shooting & Four Factors KENN JAX
FG% 44.4% 42.7%
3PT% 32.8% 32.5%
REB / G 36.8 34.7
OREB / G 11.7 11.6
AST / TO 1.13 0.75
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.4% 48.2%
TOV% 16.1% 19.7%
ORB% 29.7% 34.0%
FT Rate 24.3% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.7% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 17.7%
DRB% 69.3% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 31.1% 29.6%

Game Analysis

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