All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Western Athletic Conference · Moody Coliseum (Abilene) · March 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SEA -1.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Under
Money ACU +120 / SEA -110
Model Predictions
Spread Total ACU win
Actual ACU +5 123 Won
Massey SEA -3.3 (+8.3)
Massey Totals 142.4 (-19.4)
Bradley-Terry 52%
Weighted B-T 45%
Baseline ML SEA -1.8 (+6.8) 140.1 (-17.1) 44%
Baseline Plus ML SEA -1.6 (+6.6) 142.5 (-19.5) 53%
Efficiency Plus ML SEA -2.4 (+7.4) 141.8 (-18.8) 46%
Baseline Tuned ML SEA -1.5 (+6.5) 139.5 (-16.5) 44%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 14, 2025 SEA 6963 ACU
Feb 14, 2025 ACU 7559 SEA
Jan 12, 2025 SEA 6664 ACU
Feb 9, 2024 SEA 7552 ACU
Feb 2, 2023 ACU 8368 SEA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ACU SEA
Overall 16-18 23-14
Conference 10-10 11-9
Home 8-6 14-4
Away 5-10 4-9
Neutral 3-2 5-1
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 W4
Avg Pts For 70.7 73.0
Avg Pts Against 73.7 67.4
Massey -3.3 (#227) 3.2 (#124)
Bradley-Terry -0.21 (#190) 0.31 (#143)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.25 (#185) 0.64 (#129)
RPI 0.478 (#229) 0.516 (#140)
Shooting & Four Factors ACU SEA
FG% 42.3% 43.9%
3PT% 34.6% 34.1%
REB / G 32.6 36.9
OREB / G 9.7 10.1
AST / TO 0.97 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.8% 50.5%
TOV% 17.1% 18.7%
ORB% 26.1% 29.6%
FT Rate 28.5% 26.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.2% 46.0%
Opp TOV% 20.9% 17.6%
DRB% 69.3% 74.2%
Opp FT Rate 28.9% 26.9%

Game Analysis

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