I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
Pac-12 Conference · Maples Pavilion · March 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread STAN -4.5 Home covered
O/U 155.5 Under
Money STAN -188 / CAL +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total STAN win
Actual STAN +22 138 Won
Massey STAN -4.3 (+17.7)
Massey Totals 156.2 (-18.2)
Bradley-Terry 63%
Weighted B-T 61%
Efficiency Plus ML STAN -4.6 (+17.4) 151.3 (-13.3) 73%
Baseline Tuned ML STAN -3.6 (+18.4) 151.4 (-13.4) 67%
Baseline ML STAN -3.3 (+18.7) 152.7 (-14.7) 72%
Baseline Plus ML STAN -3.1 (+18.9) 154.5 (-16.5) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 21, 2026 CAL 7266 STAN
Jan 25, 2026 CAL 7866 STAN
Mar 12, 2025 STAN 7873 CAL
Feb 23, 2025 STAN 6661 CAL
Dec 7, 2024 STAN 8981 CAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STAN CAL
Overall 14-18 13-19
Conference 8-12 9-11
Home 10-6 10-6
Away 3-8 3-8
Neutral 1-4 0-5
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 76.3 74.0
Avg Pts Against 76.5 77.0
Massey 4.7 (#105) 3.6 (#118)
Bradley-Terry 0.37 (#138) 0.45 (#130)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.65 (#127) 0.88 (#117)
RPI 0.491 (#194) 0.495 (#184)
Shooting & Four Factors STAN CAL
FG% 46.9% 42.4%
3PT% 37.3% 33.9%
REB / G 33.9 37.2
OREB / G 7.4 10.6
AST / TO 1.27 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.6% 49.5%
TOV% 17.9% 16.0%
ORB% 22.5% 28.6%
FT Rate 20.4% 21.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.3% 51.2%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 14.5%
DRB% 73.0% 74.0%
Opp FT Rate 17.6% 23.5%

Game Analysis

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