Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU +140 GRAM -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | GRAM -1.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -1.1 (+0.1) | 133.1 (+13.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -1.1 (+0.1) | 137.3 (+9.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -2.1 (+1.1) | 134.4 (+12.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -1.6 (+0.6) | 133.5 (+13.5) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | AAMU 77 – 63 GRAM |
| Feb 10, 2026 | AAMU 66 – 58 GRAM |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GRAM 73 – 56 AAMU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | GRAM 67 – 51 AAMU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | GRAM 72 – 61 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 4-15 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#340) | -8.4 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#317) | -0.44 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#330) | -0.67 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#310) | 0.505 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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