I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
UCLA Bruins
65 88
FINAL Conference
Arizona Wildcats
Pac-12 Conference · Pauley Pavilion · March 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ARIZ -9.5 Away covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money UCLA +350 / ARIZ -500
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCLA win
Actual ARIZ +23 153 Lost
Massey ARIZ -15.0 (-8.0)
Massey Totals 146.8 (+6.2)
Bradley-Terry 18%
Weighted B-T 11%
Efficiency Plus ML ARIZ -10.9 (-12.1) 144.8 (+8.2) 19%
Baseline Tuned ML ARIZ -14.1 (-8.9) 146.9 (+6.1) 15%
Baseline ML ARIZ -15.3 (-7.7) 147.9 (+5.1) 14%
Baseline Plus ML ARIZ -14.4 (-8.6) 147.1 (+5.9) 15%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 15, 2025 ARIZ 6965 UCLA
Dec 14, 2024 UCLA 5754 ARIZ
Jan 20, 2024 ARIZ 7771 UCLA
Mar 12, 2023 ARIZ 6159 UCLA
Mar 5, 2023 UCLA 8273 ARIZ

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCLA ARIZ
Overall 16-17 27-9
Conference 10-10 15-5
Home 9-7 15-1
Away 5-6 7-4
Neutral 1-4 5-4
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.7 87.1
Avg Pts Against 66.0 72.1
Massey 5.1 (#102) 23.3 (#1)
Bradley-Terry 0.57 (#122) 2.70 (#8)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.83 (#119) 3.59 (#6)
RPI 0.507 (#159) 0.636 (#5)
Shooting & Four Factors UCLA ARIZ
FG% 41.5% 49.5%
3PT% 31.8% 37.7%
REB / G 33.5 43.1
OREB / G 10.3 13.5
AST / TO 1.03 1.63
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.1% 55.6%
TOV% 16.2% 15.6%
ORB% 30.4% 36.8%
FT Rate 26.3% 26.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 48.9%
Opp TOV% 18.3% 18.1%
DRB% 72.0% 76.8%
Opp FT Rate 25.4% 18.3%

Game Analysis

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