The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–17 on winners spread MAE 9.5 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +6.8 145.0 75% 63–79 ✓
Utah @ Oregon +1.5 150.4 60% 65–66 ✓
Wyoming @ Fresno State +0.1 140.9 51% 86–47 ✗
Cal Poly @ UC San Diego +15.1 139.8 89% 87–92 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho -0.1 130.3 49% 72–64 ✓
Southern Utah @ UT Rio Grande Valley -3.0 151.6 34% 68–59 ✓
NC State @ Pittsburgh +6.8 147.5 75% 73–81 ✓
UConn @ Providence -6.6 140.0 27% 74–60 ✓
Morehead State @ Little Rock -3.5 139.8 36% 69–55 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +7.5 126.8 75% 57–72 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -4.7 134.3 31% 71–55 ✓
Grand Canyon @ California Baptist -7.8 135.4 23% 68–47 ✓
New Mexico @ Utah State +3.1 156.2 66% 85–87 ✓
Marshall @ James Madison +12.0 149.7 85% 64–81 ✓
Furman @ Western Carolina +3.3 146.5 65% 79–76 ✗
DePaul @ Seton Hall +18.1 144.4 90% 62–86 ✓
Missouri @ LSU +8.5 150.3 82% 80–84 ✓
Hampton @ Delaware +10.0 138.7 83% 50–80 ✓
Oklahoma State @ BYU +13.0 151.0 88% 71–85 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton -6.3 139.8 26% 81–71 ✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern +6.5 141.4 74% 66–90 ✓
Denver @ Kansas City +3.8 150.6 65% 61–60 ✗
Arizona @ USC -10.0 160.9 17% 65–78 ✗
San Diego @ Santa Clara +7.2 145.3 77% 79–104 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona -3.1 140.1 38% 68–60 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara +4.3 144.7 68% 81–64 ✗
UNLV @ Nevada +7.6 137.3 76% 65–75 ✓
Arizona State @ UCLA +4.0 133.4 67% 47–59 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +4.8 134.1 70% 57–74 ✓
Portland @ San Francisco +13.9 144.0 87% 51–72 ✓
Monmouth @ Charleston +5.4 148.2 72% 59–83 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +0.9 141.6 56% 85–59 ✗
Nebraska @ Michigan -5.7 146.9 26% 85–70 ✓
Wisconsin @ Purdue +12.3 154.5 88% 70–78 ✓
Bucknell @ Colgate +8.8 131.2 82% 65–68 ✓
Drake @ Indiana State +2.1 156.3 59% 84–80 ✗
Austin Peay @ Stetson +3.8 150.7 68% 91–94 ✓
Ohio State @ Rutgers -0.3 132.7 50% 73–51 ✓
Towson @ UNC Wilmington +2.2 133.7 58% 66–56 ✗
Temple @ UTSA +1.2 150.8 55% 84–82 ✗
SMU @ UAB -1.4 150.7 46% 70–74 ✗
Lehigh @ Boston University +0.5 136.9 51% 84–79 ✗
Furman @ Samford +5.9 156.6 74% 77–84 ✓
Michigan State @ Indiana -3.4 137.4 37% 64–65 ✗
Stony Brook @ Drexel +2.9 140.0 59% 91–88 ✗
New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +5.5 142.1 73% 78–66 ✗
Arkansas State @ App State +4.9 145.8 72% 67–65 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +1.2 141.1 56% 85–84 ✗
Illinois @ Iowa -1.0 166.3 46% 73–61 ✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +5.5 137.3 71% 58–68 ✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +9.0 143.3 81% 74–69 ✗
Maryland @ Penn State +1.6 141.5 55% 69–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.