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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–3 on winners
spread MAE 6.4
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Texas A&M
@
Northwestern State
|
-0.0 | 139.8 | 49% | 69–64 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
James Madison
|
+9.2 | 142.5 | 80% | 68–73 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Hofstra
|
+3.8 | 138.2 | 65% | 58–73 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
North Dakota
|
+1.8 | 144.8 | 58% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Idaho State
@
Northern Colorado
|
+2.7 | 148.4 | 63% | 83–76 | ✗ |
Towson
@
Charleston
|
+4.2 | 135.5 | 68% | 56–61 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Lamar
|
+9.1 | 148.1 | 82% | 57–71 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Oakland
|
+3.6 | 143.7 | 64% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
James Madison
|
+6.1 | 151.7 | 76% | 71–91 | ✓ |
East Tennessee State
@
Samford
|
+6.3 | 148.7 | 76% | 69–76 | ✓ |
St. Thomas-Minnesota
@
South Dakota State
|
+0.5 | 136.6 | 53% | 49–59 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Weber State
|
+4.7 | 141.6 | 70% | 91–82 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.