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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–9 on winners
spread MAE 6.6
22 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+6.5 | 143.0 | 75% | 51–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 142.0 | 66% | 63–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.7 | 137.2 | 78% | 65–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 152.4 | 51% | 66–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.1 | 153.0 | 57% | 82–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 142.5 | 71% | 81–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 146.3 | 75% | 77–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 133.4 | 35% | 63–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 136.4 | 70% | 62–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 133.7 | 48% | 80–84 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.0 | 147.7 | 51% | 60–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.2 | 142.7 | 82% | 85–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 146.1 | 81% | 85–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 137.5 | 87% | 59–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 154.1 | 49% | 74–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 138.9 | 57% | 77–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.3 | 155.3 | 70% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 143.1 | 88% | 57–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 150.3 | 73% | 79–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 151.0 | 70% | 76–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 124.3 | 74% | 54–47 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.9 | 143.5 | 48% | 65–81 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.