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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–10 on winners
spread MAE 7.6
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sacramento State
@
Montana State
|
+3.6 | 136.4 | 66% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Iona
|
+7.8 | 137.0 | 80% | 57–60 | ✓ |
Gonzaga
@
Saint Mary's
|
-1.3 | 137.6 | 45% | 60–69 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+2.3 | 138.3 | 59% | 81–73 | ✗ |
Florida International
@
Jacksonville State
|
+3.9 | 137.1 | 65% | 76–67 | ✗ |
Denver
@
South Dakota State
|
+6.6 | 150.4 | 76% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Montana
|
+6.0 | 142.8 | 75% | 58–72 | ✓ |
Siena
@
Niagara
|
+9.5 | 132.3 | 83% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
George Mason
|
-0.0 | 136.0 | 49% | 64–57 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Virginia Tech
|
+2.5 | 148.9 | 60% | 86–76 | ✗ |
UCF
@
BYU
|
+5.6 | 140.9 | 73% | 73–87 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Wichita State
|
+3.7 | 138.2 | 66% | 81–88 | ✓ |
Fordham
@
VCU
|
+7.4 | 136.6 | 78% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Wyoming
|
+4.5 | 137.2 | 69% | 77–73 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Wake Forest
|
+8.3 | 136.9 | 79% | 59–72 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Alcorn State
|
+3.6 | 143.9 | 66% | 75–63 | ✗ |
USC
@
Washington
|
+1.3 | 152.1 | 55% | 80–74 | ✗ |
Oklahoma
@
TCU
|
+0.5 | 146.0 | 53% | 70–77 | ✓ |
UTSA
@
Temple
|
+1.8 | 149.1 | 58% | 61–64 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Butler
|
+0.1 | 148.3 | 50% | 76–72 | ✗ |
San José State
@
Colorado State
|
+13.8 | 137.3 | 87% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
McNeese
|
+14.2 | 140.2 | 88% | 76–92 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+6.3 | 138.8 | 75% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
UCLA
|
+2.2 | 131.9 | 59% | 57–67 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Norfolk State
|
+12.6 | 131.5 | 86% | 51–75 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Maryland
|
+2.1 | 122.9 | 57% | 51–65 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Quinnipiac
|
+3.9 | 142.1 | 67% | 52–76 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
Sam Houston
|
+8.1 | 142.8 | 79% | 59–78 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Providence
|
+9.4 | 142.3 | 82% | 56–74 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Colgate
|
+8.3 | 135.9 | 81% | 55–74 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
New Mexico
|
+14.9 | 145.0 | 88% | 56–82 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
+5.6 | 147.4 | 74% | 85–90 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Texas
|
+3.6 | 143.9 | 62% | 78–74 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Syracuse
|
+0.0 | 151.3 | 51% | 83–65 | ✗ |
Saint Louis
@
Duquesne
|
+7.2 | 143.7 | 77% | 73–83 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.