Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -350 KENT +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +15 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -6.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -5.6 (+9.4) | 152.2 (+4.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -6.1 (+8.9) | 152.7 (+4.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -6.5 (+8.5) | 154.2 (+2.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -6.7 (+8.3) | 154.1 (+2.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | KENT 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 16, 2026 | KENT 87 – 84 TOL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | KENT 105 – 65 TOL |
| Jan 22, 2025 | KENT 83 – 64 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2024 | KENT 67 – 59 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#132) | -0.2 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#118) | -0.38 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#128) | -0.44 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#96) | 0.493 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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