Betting Lines
| Spread | KENT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -102 KENT -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KENT +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -3.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -2.7 (-5.7) | 160.3 (-13.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -1.3 (-4.3) | 157.7 (-10.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -2.2 (-5.2) | 158.6 (-11.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -1.8 (-4.8) | 159.8 (-12.8) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | KENT 87 – 84 TOL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | KENT 105 – 65 TOL |
| Jan 22, 2025 | KENT 83 – 64 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2024 | KENT 67 – 59 TOL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TOL 86 – 71 KENT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 82.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#150) | 0.9 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#143) | 1.13 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#133) | 1.20 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#104) | 0.576 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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