Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -213 KENT +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KENT +8 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -3.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -3.8 (-11.8) | 151.6 (-25.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -2.3 (-10.3) | 149.8 (-23.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -4.1 (-12.1) | 151.4 (-25.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -4.1 (-12.1) | 152.3 (-26.3) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | KENT 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 16, 2026 | KENT 87 – 84 TOL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | KENT 105 – 65 TOL |
| Jan 22, 2025 | KENT 83 – 64 TOL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TOL 86 – 71 KENT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#129) | -0.5 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#118) | -0.40 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#125) | -0.46 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#93) | 0.492 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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