Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -120 KENT +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KENT +19 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -1.7 (-20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -0.3 (-19.3) | 139.3 (+7.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -1.4 (-20.4) | 138.3 (+8.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -1.0 (-20.0) | 138.3 (+8.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -0.5 (-19.5) | 143.1 (+3.9) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | KENT 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 16, 2026 | KENT 87 – 84 TOL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | KENT 105 – 65 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2024 | KENT 67 – 59 TOL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TOL 86 – 71 KENT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#190) | 0.2 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#135) | 0.24 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#164) | 0.04 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#121) | 0.514 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 24.9% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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