← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

56–25 on winners spread MAE 10.1 81 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Iowa @ Clemson	-11.6	153.2	16%	74–71	✓
Nicholls @ UC Irvine	+12.7	142.2	86%	56–83	✓
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico	+15.2	150.8	88%	61–79	✓
Lafayette @ Penn State	+15.1	133.3	86%	57–70	✓
William & Mary @ Pittsburgh	+4.1	138.3	63%	64–80	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Hofstra	+2.9	142.8	65%	64–54	✗
Tennessee @ Kansas	-2.9	136.2	45%	64–50	✓
Tulsa @ Oklahoma State	+7.4	147.1	76%	56–82	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas State	+2.8	136.7	58%	67–59	✗
Oklahoma @ Seton Hall	+2.5	127.8	61%	77–64	✗
Long Beach State @ Oakland	-12.6	155.6	15%	78–70	✓
Charleston Southern @ Virginia Tech	+17.2	149.2	90%	64–69	✓
Sacramento State @ Hawai'i	+0.1	131.5	50%	61–74	✓
Grambling @ UTSA	+9.4	137.6	82%	75–55	✗
Lindenwood @ Illinois	+23.2	153.1	91%	59–92	✓
Robert Morris @ Mercer	+3.6	141.5	65%	66–72	✓
Idaho @ Pacific	+12.3	149.2	86%	84–81	✗
West Virginia @ Portland State	-7.1	155.0	25%	89–71	✓
UConn @ Alabama	+1.6	146.3	56%	82–67	✗
New Mexico State @ San Diego	-0.1	145.2	51%	90–77	✓
Northern Colorado @ North Dakota State	+2.1	146.6	60%	80–70	✗
Butler @ NC State	-0.2	144.4	53%	61–76	✗
California @ TCU	+3.7	133.0	68%	48–59	✓
Texas State @ Southern Utah	+1.6	142.8	52%	78–65	✗
Purdue @ Gonzaga	+0.3	145.0	53%	84–66	✗
Oregon @ Michigan State	+2.8	136.4	63%	70–74	✓
Army @ Manhattan	-0.0	143.9	48%	71–72	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Navy	+7.9	141.6	78%	59–75	✓
Loyola Maryland @ UL Monroe	-4.0	134.9	30%	65–64	✓
James Madison @ South Dakota State	-12.4	149.6	17%	79–60	✓
Cleveland State @ Western Michigan	+0.0	136.7	47%	71–49	✗
Northeastern @ Princeton	+9.9	139.6	82%	54–56	✓
Missouri State @ Ball State	-1.4	136.5	45%	64–67	✗
UMBC @ Georgetown	+11.5	154.7	84%	70–79	✓
Houston Christian @ Missouri	+23.8	154.9	91%	69–105	✓
Hampton @ Wake Forest	+14.2	151.0	88%	70–97	✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAlbany	-6.3	143.7	24%	73–56	✓
Little Rock @ Miami (OH)	+1.2	156.8	50%	67–80	✓
Southern @ Omaha	-7.0	139.8	22%	78–88	✗
Northern Illinois @ Northern Iowa	+4.9	138.8	69%	76–83	✓
Marist @ Bucknell	+11.4	137.5	85%	60–54	✗
Boston University @ Southeast Missouri State	-1.3	137.9	42%	52–63	✗
UNC Greensboro @ Hofstra	+3.0	143.7	67%	53–65	✓
Western Carolina @ UNC Asheville	+5.0	156.3	70%	61–73	✓
South Dakota @ Coastal Carolina	+2.4	144.2	55%	59–66	✓
Utah Tech @ Cal State Fullerton	+3.1	151.7	65%	66–60	✗
Alabama State @ Eastern Illinois	+3.6	129.1	69%	67–58	✗
Binghamton @ La Salle	+8.9	140.1	78%	62–65	✓
New Hampshire @ George Washington	+3.7	144.1	65%	54–75	✓
Queens University @ George Mason	+2.8	142.9	58%	65–72	✓
Niagara @ St. John's	+11.9	138.6	84%	70–78	✓
Hartford @ Delaware	+10.5	142.5	82%	50–78	✓
Kent State @ Houston	+14.2	132.3	86%	44–49	✓
South Alabama @ Towson	+1.2	133.3	60%	60–62	✓
Oakland @ San José State	+8.8	147.9	81%	67–80	✓
Youngstown State @ Western Illinois	-2.3	147.8	42%	88–64	✓
Central Connecticut @ Rutgers	+21.4	131.5	90%	49–83	✓
Howard @ Austin Peay	+7.7	140.7	75%	56–55	✗
Gardner-Webb @ North Carolina Central	+2.6	139.2	62%	53–58	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas	+24.5	147.0	91%	54–91	✓
Tarleton State @ Wichita State	+5.4	131.4	66%	71–83	✓
South Carolina State @ Western Kentucky	+13.1	147.1	88%	64–90	✓
Utah Valley @ Boise State	+10.4	131.7	80%	69–87	✓
Merrimack @ Bradley	+9.3	134.3	78%	41–83	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Idaho State	+6.3	135.0	74%	68–66	✗
Kennesaw State @ VCU	+7.3	135.9	75%	61–64	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Colorado State	+16.6	134.3	89%	45–88	✓
Presbyterian @ Charlotte	+14.7	128.1	85%	42–69	✓
Clemson @ California	-4.6	130.0	31%	67–59	✓
Southern Indiana @ Bowling Green	+1.2	150.5	53%	69–57	✗
Columbia @ Providence	+13.8	147.2	88%	64–78	✓
Bryant @ Syracuse	+2.4	157.0	50%	73–72	✗
North Alabama @ Georgia Tech	+9.2	141.1	80%	61–80	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Middle Tennessee	-1.7	134.4	39%	63–75	✗
Colgate @ Pennsylvania	+3.9	150.3	66%	69–81	✓
Robert Morris @ Evansville	+0.6	130.4	54%	53–54	✓
UC Davis @ Milwaukee	-3.2	144.9	32%	85–87	✗
Delaware State @ Liberty	+10.7	137.1	85%	53–80	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Vermont	-0.8	133.7	45%	68–66	✓
Louisiana @ Drake	+7.1	147.1	74%	64–76	✓
Northwestern State @ Central Arkansas	+4.0	143.5	64%	74–66	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.