Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -111 BTLR -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -0.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -1.7 (+13.3) | 146.6 (-9.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -1.5 (+13.5) | 141.3 (-4.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -0.2 (+15.2) | 144.4 (-7.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -0.2 (+14.8) | 145.9 (-8.9) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#38) | 9.7 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#72) | 0.51 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#73) | 0.61 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#76) | 0.559 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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