Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MER -275 RMU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MER -5.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.5 (+3.5) | 140.4 (-2.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -4.2 (+1.8) | 140.7 (-2.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -3.6 (+2.4) | 141.5 (-3.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.6 (+3.4) | 141.4 (-3.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#204) | -6.3 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#301) | -1.38 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#297) | -2.04 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#306) | 0.407 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 33.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 37.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 10.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 60.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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