Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | BALL +240 MOST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -1.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -1.2 (+4.2) | 135.1 (-4.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -3.4 (+6.4) | 132.3 (-1.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -1.4 (+4.4) | 136.5 (-5.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -1.3 (+4.3) | 137.5 (-6.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 63.7 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#177) | 2.0 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#195) | -1.05 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#203) | -1.05 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#228) | 0.357 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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