Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | HOF +100 UNCG +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -6.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-32.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -2.2 (+9.8) | 142.6 (-24.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -2.6 (+9.4) | 138.2 (-20.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -3.0 (+9.0) | 143.7 (-25.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -2.4 (+9.6) | 143.8 (-25.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 11-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.9 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#108) | -2.4 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#24) | 0.76 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#47) | 1.88 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.740 (#2) | 0.544 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 17.4% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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