Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -300 SAC +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SAC -0.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -0.9 (+12.1) | 130.0 (+5.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -3.2 (+9.8) | 130.6 (+4.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -0.1 (+12.9) | 131.5 (+3.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -0.3 (+13.3) | 132.3 (+2.7) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#130) | 2.9 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#203) | 1.66 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#193) | 2.00 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#166) | 0.610 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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