Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SDST +180 JMU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +19 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -16.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -13.3 (-5.7) | 151.3 (-12.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -11.1 (-7.9) | 148.5 (-9.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -12.4 (-6.6) | 149.6 (-10.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -13.5 (-5.5) | 150.6 (-11.6) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#125) | 19.1 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#99) | 1.82 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#122) | 2.70 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#99) | 0.536 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 43.3% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 4.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 14.8% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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