Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -138 UNCW +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -2.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.0 (+0.0) | 131.4 (+2.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -2.3 (+0.3) | 130.5 (+3.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -0.8 (-1.2) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -1.1 (-0.9) | 133.6 (+0.4) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#223) | 0.3 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#177) | 0.44 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#156) | 1.32 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#168) | 0.591 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 37.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 16.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 37.6% |
Game Analysis
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