Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -2000 NIA +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -13.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -11.1 (-3.1) | 137.7 (+10.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -12.8 (-4.8) | 139.0 (+9.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -11.9 (-3.9) | 138.6 (+9.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -12.8 (-4.8) | 136.7 (+11.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#73) | 0.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#65) | 1.44 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#72) | 1.25 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#105) | 0.655 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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