Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -200 PUR +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +18 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -2.9 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -0.3 (-18.3) | 145.0 (+5.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -0.5 (-17.5) | 146.0 (+4.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -0.1 (-18.1) | 143.2 (+6.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -0.8 (-18.8) | 145.2 (+4.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 29, 2024 | PUR 80 – 68 GONZ |
| Nov 20, 2023 | PUR 73 – 63 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#14) | 12.3 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#38) | 2.97 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#33) | 4.89 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.669 (#22) | 0.702 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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