Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ +170 PUR -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +10 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -10.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.6 (-3.4) | 147.3 (-11.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.7 (-3.3) | 148.1 (-12.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.5 (-2.5) | 146.5 (-10.5) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 29, 2024 | PUR 80 – 68 GONZ |
| Nov 26, 2022 | PUR 84 – 66 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#88) | 16.0 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#75) | 1.31 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#71) | 2.00 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.740 (#12) | 0.678 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 53.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 46.3% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 62.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 39.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 6.9% |
Game Analysis
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