Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
(1) Purdue Boilermakers
80 68
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(5) Gonzaga Bulldogs
Little Caesars Arena (Neutral) · March 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread PUR -4.5 Home covered
O/U 155.5 Under
Money PUR -200 / GONZ +155
Model Predictions
Spread Total PUR win
Actual PUR +12 148 Won
Massey PUR -5.8 (+6.2)
Massey Totals 157.8 (-9.8)
Bradley-Terry 79%
Weighted B-T 81%
Baseline Plus ML PUR -7.8 (+4.2) 151.9 (-3.9) 75%
Model 4 ML PUR -7.0 (+5.0) 153.0 (-5.0) 75%
Model 3 ML PUR -7.9 (+4.1) 153.8 (-5.8) 76%
Baseline ML PUR -7.0 (+5.0) 152.9 (-4.9) 73%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 20, 2023 PUR 7363 GONZ
Nov 26, 2022 PUR 8466 GONZ

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PUR GONZ
Overall 34-5 27-8
Conference 17-3 14-2
Home 16-0 13-2
Away 7-3 8-2
Neutral 11-2 6-4
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 82.3 83.4
Avg Pts Against 69.0 69.5
Massey 22.5 (#3) 16.7 (#16)
Bradley-Terry 3.79 (#2) 2.48 (#15)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.68 (#2) 3.25 (#12)
RPI 0.677 (#1) 0.602 (#19)
Shooting & Four Factors PUR GONZ
FG% 49.0% 51.4%
3PT% 40.9% 36.3%
REB / G 40.8 38.4
OREB / G 12.3 10.6
AST / TO 1.66 1.69
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.2% 57.1%
TOV% 16.4% 14.2%
ORB% 37.9% 33.3%
FT Rate 30.5% 22.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.3% 46.8%
Opp TOV% 13.8% 16.0%
DRB% 75.8% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 16.6% 18.4%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.