Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -200 GONZ +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -5.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -5.7 (+6.3) | 153.2 (-5.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -4.6 (+7.4) | 151.8 (-3.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -5.6 (+6.4) | 151.9 (-3.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.9 (+7.1) | 151.3 (-3.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2023 | PUR 73 – 63 GONZ |
| Nov 26, 2022 | PUR 84 – 66 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-2 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 22.5 (#3) | 16.7 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#2) | 2.48 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.68 (#2) | 3.25 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#1) | 0.602 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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